Mortgage Matters

The answer to the age-old question of whether to go long or short on your mortgage is unclear yet again.

The popular variable-rate product tied to prime that helped people buy a lot more house with more debt is going up. The prime rate at the major banks, which tracks the Bank of Canada’s rate, is now at 2.75%.

At 2.05%, a variable-rate product today may look as attractive as ever, but the five-year fixed-rate closed mortgage is falling fast. It can now be had for under 4%.

Bank of Montreal senior economist Sal Guatieri does agree that variable-rate products have worked out better than fixed-rate mortgages throughout history, but says the tide may be turning.

Bank of Montreal is forecasting another 25 basis point move in September and says rates will climb another 1.5 percentage points by the end of 2011. If Mr. Guatieri and others are right, by 2012, the variable-rate products out today would clock in at just above 3.75%, if the discounting remains the same.

“If you are still in that variable-rate product then, you’d have to sweat out the next three years because there would still be possibly more increases,” says Mr. Guatieri, who adds his bank sees the overnight rate eventually going to 4% in the following three years. Based on the present gap between the Bank of Canada and prime, that would place the variable-rate product you get today at 6% by around 2015.

Fears of such a scenario are driving people into fixed-rate products again. That, plus new mortgage rules that make it easier to qualify for a mortgage if you go for a fixed-rate product with a term of five years or longer.

For updated rates and more information on the right mortgage for you please visit www.designermortgages.ca/rates.htm or call 1-866-824-8057

Uncategorized Mortgage, Variable and Fixed Rate

Financial Post · Wednesday, Jun. 30, 2010

OTTAWA — Home prices in some of Canada’s biggest cities rose 0.8% in April, according the latest Teranet-National Bank house-price index released Wednesday.

That followed a 0.3% rise for March, and marked the 12th straight month that prices have risen.

“At the national level, April continues the best string of consecutive monthly price increases since September 2006,” Marc Pinsonneault, economist with National Bank Financial, wrote in a report. “Home prices are now 2.9% above their recession peak, a situation that contrasts with the one prevailing in the U.S., where prices are down 30% from their peak.”

The index takes into account price trends in six urban areas. Prices in Halifax were up 1.9% for the month, Montreal and Ottawa home prices were ahead 1.1%, Toronto was up 0.6%, and Calgary and Vancouver were both ahead 0.8%.

It marked the first time in five months all local areas saw monthly gains. Calgary, however, remains the only area among the six still short of its pre-recession high, which it achieved in August 2007.

For the year, the national composite home price index was up 12.9%.

Canwest News Service

Uncategorized Home Price

For retirees, the golden years have become a series of tough compromises. The trouble is, a lack of employment income combined with debt stalk the good times they thought they would have after they left their careers.
One case study stated their jobs paid them a total of about $100,000 per year. Today, as a result of too much house and the repairs it entails — repainting, new floors, new electrical circuits, new kitchen counters, custom French doors and other elegances — they carry a debt of almost $70,000, nearly twice their retirement income of $37,000 a year.
If they pay off the debt, they will face a cash shortage. They could do it, but it would wipe out all of their RRSPs and other retirement assets built up over their working lives. A tough choice.
“We used to think that our house would go up enough in price to cover our debts,” they explain. “But I don’t think you can rely on that.”
Their situation could be resolved by selling the house, yet they fear that having paid too much in renovations, even downsizing might leave them house broke — with a nice abode and nothing else.
“As I approach the age of 60, I don’t want to carry so much debt. There has to be an end to the debt. I want my mind to be clear that when we get our Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security, we will be able to keep those benefits. We don’t want to go into our sunset years paying off our debts.”
First was Investors Group, which said 62% plan to carry debt such as a mortgage into their golden years. Then Royal Bank of Canada came out with its Ipsos Reid poll, which found four in 10 Canadians retired with some form of debt, and one in four began retirement with a mortgage on their primary residence.
“More and more, Canadians are carrying debt into retirement,” said Lee Anne Davies, head of retirement strategies at RBC.
Just this week, BMO Financial Group noted less than half of Canadians 55 and over have a post-retirement income strategy in place and only a third have considered that they might outlive their savings.
It’s a new and dangerous trend.
The risk of senior bankruptcy grows with age. A study for the Canadian Institute of Actuaries released June 2007, shows that longevity risk — the chance of living to a very ripe old age — poses the problem of running out of personal savings.
It would be wrong to label all debt foolish and all debtors in peril of financial catastrophe, argues Tina DiVito, head of retirement solutions at BMO Financial Group. “There is bad debt and good debt. Bad debt may be what one borrowed for a transitory pleasure, such as a vacation, after which the borrower has to pay high interest rates and gets no tax breaks.
“Good debt bears moderate rates of interest and is payable in a reasonable time period, perhaps as a part of an investment that makes interest tax-deductible,” Ms. DiVito says.
For good debt, consider the case of 61-year-old Montreal retiree Ioanna Jakus, who has maintained a mid-six figure investment portfolio while living on an after-tax income of less than $2,000 per month.
A former bank employee, she has a $10,000 line of credit with her stock broker. “I use the line to buy stocks and bonds,” she says. “I can deduct the interest I pay from my taxable income. My investments have been successful and have more than paid the cost of credit. What’s more, rates of interest are so low that borrowing to invest just makes sense for me.”
Not only has Ms. Jakus made intelligent use of credit, she has done so expertly, selecting low-risk GICs, bonds and blue-chip stocks with strong dividends. “I have always been motivated by the knowledge that only I can control my destiny,” she explains. “My husband and I paid off the mortgage — that was when interest rates were near 20% — and we never borrowed again for spending.
“Of course, I can clear my investment debt in a moment by using cash in one of my accounts. My philosophy has always been not to take risks that I cannot afford, especially when it comes to borrowing money.
“Nobody can look after me as well as I can,” she adds.
That’s a lesson a lot of retirees have yet to learn.

Source:
Andrew Allentuck, Financial Post ·

Mortgages debt, Retirees

House prices will increase this year and next despite the challenges posed by higher mortgage rates, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Wednesday.

An “improved balance between demand and supply” will stabilize prices through the rest of this year, it said in its second quarter Housing Market Outlook. Prices will “rise modestly” in 2011, it said.

The agency, which insures almost $500-million of Canadian mortgages, said the average cost for a home by the end of 2011 should be $350,000. That would be a gain of 1.4 per cent over April’s record high of $344,968.

Forecasting higher prices next year puts it at odds with both the Canadian Real Estate Association and Toronto-Dominion Bank, which are calling for prices to drop by 1.5 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively in 2011.

“It all comes down to the economy and what we’ve seen so far this year is a strong end to 2009 and through 2010 we’ve seen some effects from various fiscal measures,” said senior economist Bill Clark. “There was a big April gain in employment, and as the economy gets moving again people become more interested in housing.”
Source: CMHC

Mortgages Housing Starts

With the Canadian economy doing surprisingly well over the past six months, many see higher interest rates from the Bank of Canada in the not so distant future, but according to a report released Thursday from CIBC’s chide economist Avery Shenfeld rates are likely to remain at a very low 2.5% through to 2011.

Historically, as far as interest rates are concerned, it is better to float your mortgage interest rate (i.e., choose a variable rate mortgage). This is a result of the “yield curve.” The “normal” yield curve is positively sloped, with interest rates lower for short-term maturities (one to two years) and higher for longer-term maturities (five to 30 years). When the economy strengthens, the Bank of Canada will raise short-term interest rates (they only have control over short-term rates) and the base for variable-rate mortgages (usually the prime rate) is moved higher. This action signals a period of “tightening” of monetary policy to cool the economy and reduces inflationary pressures.

The vehicles that determine longer-term interest rates — bonds — tend to move according to inflationary expectations: If bond investors anticipate inflation (because of economic growth), they demand higher returns (interest rates) as protection from inflation. When the Bank of Canada is perceived as “fighting” inflation by raising short term interest rates, long-term rates have a tendency, in most cases, to remain stable or improve, because long-term bond investors are content that inflation will not grow.

In essence, while short-term interest rates may go up, they do so only until the Bank of Canada has slowed the economy enough to curb anticipated inflation. Then, as economic growth slows, the bank starts to lower them. The yield curve will flatten (with higher short-term interest rates) for a time, but when the economy slows, short-term rates will go back down and the yield curve returns to its “normal” positive slope.

Over this time, variable-rate mortgages will move up to being approximately equal to locked-in five-or 10-year rates, but that’s followed by a period when they return to lower levels. More often than not, over this time, it is less costly to have held the variable rate debt. Exceptions to this situation would be times of hyper-inflation (like in the 1980s) when short-term interest rates went to extreme levels.

The economy is strengthening and short term rates will go up a bit over the next couple of years, but I don’t think it will be dramatic. The case for variable-rate mortgages remains strong.

Source: Financial Post Magazine, Tuesday April 6th & Julie Fortier, Financial Post, Thursday April 8th 2010

Mortgages interest rates, Short Term Interest Rates, Variable Rate Mortgage

Last Updated: Monday, March 29, 2010 | 11:23 AM ET
CBC News
Royal Bank and TD Canada Trust announced Monday they are increasing several mortgage rates by up to 6/10ths of a percentage point.

The biggest jump is attached to the popular five-year fixed closed rate, which moves from 5.25 per cent to 5.85 per cent at both banks. That’s the posted rate, which is routinely discounted by the big banks.

RBC’s new discounted rate for the five-year term also rises 6/10ths of a percentage point to 4.59 per cent. TD’s rises the same amount to 4.55 per cent.

Both banks also raised their three-year and four-year fixed closed rates. The posted three-year rate at Royal Bank climbs one-fifth of a percentage point to 4.35 per cent, while the posted rate at TD jumps 4/10ths of a point to 4.70 per cent.

The posted four-year rate at both banks jumps 4/10ths of a percentage point to 5.34 per cent.

Other banks are expected to follow suit. The new rates, effective Tuesday, represent the first hike in Canadian mortgage rates since last October.

Variable mortgage rates, which rise in tandem with the Bank of Canada’s key overnight lending rate, are unchanged. But they are likely to be heading up soon too.

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last week that inflation was higher than expected. That had some market watchers forecasting that the central bank could move to raise its key lending rate as early as June.

The key rate has been at a rock-bottom 0.25 per cent since April 2009 to help the economy recover.

Fixed-rate mortgage rates tend to move higher when long-term bond yields rise.

A survey released last week by RBC found almost two-thirds of respondents expected the cost of servicing a mortgage to rise this year.

Mortgages Fixed Rate Mortgage, Interest Rate Increase, interest rates, Rate Hike

As a result of stubborn inflation and stronger then expected economic growth signs are becoming more clear that Canadians could be seeing interest rate hikes sooner then previously anticipated.

Bank of Canada’s Mark Carney did not directly state that higher rates were on the way however, he did issue his clearest indication to date that his year-old commitment to keep the policy rate at the record 0.25 per cent until July was “expressly conditional” on inflation remaining tame.

In a speech to a business audience, the bank governor noted that both underlying core inflation and economic growth have grown slightly stronger, although broadly proceeding as expected.

The tip-off to economists was that he changed his language on his conditional commitment on interest rates, which has led to historically low rates for both consumers and businesses in Canada and helped the country recover from recession.
“This commitment is expressly conditional on the outlook for inflation,” he told the Ottawa Economic Association.

It was the first time Carney has undercut the commitment in such pointed language.
“They still have considerable latitude, but the changes that would be required to their forecast are consistent with hiking rates sooner than markets are anticipating,” said Derek Holt, Scotiabank’s vice-president of economics. He said Carney may move as early as June 1.

But Holt stressed that Carney’s overall message to Canadians is that rates will remain low by historical standards for some time.

“No matter what, we emerge from this with lower rates at the end point of the hiking campaign than in past cycles. He’s saying the outlook is clouded with risks and there’s a number of reasons to expect growth to be lower than past cycles.”

For more interest rate information contact Verico Designer Mortgages Inc.

Source: Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press

Uncategorized Bank of Canada, Economic Growth, Inflation, interest rates

The Bank of Canada took its first steps Tuesday toward returning the country to more normal interest-rate levels by signalling a more hawkish tone on inflation and acknowledging the economy is performing better than expected on “vigorous” consumer demand.

The messages were conveyed in the Bank of Canada’s latest interest-rate statement, which kept its record-low benchmark rate of 0.25 per cent and pledged to keep it there at least until July.

But most bank watchers took note of subtle changes in the statement, compared with previous rate announcements, and there was enough there for them to begin the countdown to rate hikes.

“I suspect (Bank of Canada governor) Mark Carney and company are starting to feel the urge to tighten — not a strong urge now, but an urge nevertheless,” said Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Among the key changes was a declaration from the bank that the risks to its inflation outlook are “roughly balanced,” and no longer “tilted slightly to the downside” — language that suggests deflation is no longer a concern and that price increases are creeping up to a level that may prompt a response.

The wording change from the Bank of Canada may appear trivial, “but it is nonetheless significant as it reflects an economic backdrop that continues to improve at a much faster pace than what the bank had envisaged,” said Paul-Andre Pinsonnault, senior fixed-income economist at National Bank Financial.

In the statement, the central bank acknowledged economic activity has been “slightly higher” than its own projections, with the five-per-cent gain in the fourth quarter powered by “vigorous domestic demand” and a recovery in exports.

The consensus remains that the central bank will wait until July to begin raising rates. There are two more scheduled rate decisions between now and then — April 20 and June 1.

“What we saw (Tuesday was) one of many steps aiming at moving away from dovish statements to relatively more hawkish ones,” said Sebastien Lavoie, economist with Laurentian Bank Securities.

His firm predicts rate increases will begin in the third quarter, but he said the odds have increased that the first hike will be in July as opposed to September.

Economists are predicting increases of one full percentage point to 1.5 points over the second half of 2010.

Source: Paul Vieira, Canwest News Service

For more information contact Verico Designer Mortgages Inc

Mortgages interest rates, Rate Increase

The Bank of Canada is keeping its benchmark lending rate at a record low of 0.25 per cent, reiterating on Tuesday its conditional commitment to hold rates steady until the middle of this year.
Although it held the overnight lending rate steady, the bank acknowledged the recovery appears to be proceeding at a better pace than it had anticipated.
“The level of economic activity in Canada has been slightly higher than the bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report,” the bank said in announcing the rate decision.
“Conditional on the current outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target.”
It is set to release its next decision on interest rates on April 20.

Source: CBC News
For more information please contact Verico Designer Mortgages Inc.

Mortgages Bank of Canada, interest rates

On Tuesday, the Department of Finance announced three changes to the standards governing government-backed mortgages, that come into force April 19. Here are a summary of the changes.

QUALIFYING FOR A FIVE-YEAR RATE

The adjustments to the mortgage framework will require mortgage insurers to ensure that new borrowers qualify for a five-year fixed rate mortgage when calculating the gross debt service and total debt service ratios. The measure is intended to protect Canadians by providing them with additional flexibility to support mortgage payments at higher interest rates in the future.

LIMIT THE MAXIMUM REFINANCING

Borrowers seeking financial flexibility can currently refinance their mortgage and increase the amount they are borrowing on the security of their home up to a limit of 95% of the value of the property. The adjustment will lower the maximum amount of the mortgage loan in a refinancing of a government-backed high-ratio mortgage loan to 90% of the value of the property, consistent with the principle that home ownership is a tool for savings.

DISCOURAGING SPECULATION

This measure will require a minimum down payment of 20% for government-backed mortgage insurance on non-owner-occupied properties purchased for speculation. At present, borrowers may purchase a residential property with a 5% down payment. The change will require a 20% down payment for small non-owner-occupied residential rental properties. Borrowers purchasing owner-occupied residential properties which also include some rental units (such as a duplex) will still be able to access government-backed mortgage insurance with a 5% down payment.

For more information please contact Verico Designer Mortgages Inc at 905-336-5997

Source:
Paul Vieira, Financial Post  Published: Tuesday, February 16, 2010  

Uncategorized