In its December economic review, the central bank said that “certain areas” of the housing market could see prices fall as the economy weakens.

“Certain areas of the national housing market may be more vulnerable to price declines, particularly the multiple-unit segment of the market, which is showing signs of disequilibrium,” the bank warned. “The supply of  completed but unoccupied condominiums is elevated, which suggests a heightened  risk of a correction in this market.”

The Toronto  market has been of particular concern to market watchers, with prices  continuing to rise at the same time as a record number of new units are set to  flood the market.

It’s also unclear who is buying the units – those in the industry often cite foreign demand, saying that investors from afar are racing to snap up units  because the city is seen as a safe place to park money.

But there are no actual statistics. Canadadoesn’t track foreign  investment in its real estate market, leaving anyone with an anecdote licence  to talk up the market.

While there has been a flurry of construction in the GTA, where most of the  country’s condos are built, there are signs that the market is slowing. Data  released Thursday by Canada Mortgage and Housing showed the number of  multiple-unit housing starts dropped by a surprising 23 per cent in November.

Urbanation, which tracks Toronto  condo sales, said that 20,964 new condo units were sold in the first nine  months of the year, putting the city on track for a record year regardless of  any recent slowdown.

The average resale unit, meanwhile, sold for $365,161 in November,  according to the Toronto Real Estate Board, 8 per cent higher than they were  last year.

National Bank Financial analyst Stefane Marion said that he disagrees with  the idea of oversupply in the city. He said the amount of inventory currently  on hand would take 19.3 months to sell, below the historical average of 26  months and well below the four-year mark set in 1990, 2007 and 2010.

While it may be true that the residential market in Canada is vulnerable to  price declines in the advent of an economic slowdown, the source of the problem  is more likely to come from a credit-crunch induced global recession, not the
Toronto new condo market,” he said.

Those in the industry don’t expect to see things slow down much in the next year.

“As a result of delayed condo launches in 2011, and due to the number  of new sites rumoured and under development in the GTA, we are expecting a busy  2012 in terms of new condo launches,” said Matthew Slutsky, president of BuzzBuzzHome. “We are  expecting to see some epic and mind-blowing new condominium buildings and sites  coming to market in 2012, specifically centred aroundToronto’sYonge Street and the 905 region.”

Steve Ladurantaye

Globe and Mail Update

Posted on Thursday, December 8, 2011 2:54PM EST

Globe and Mail Update

Published Monday, Jan. 23, 2012 6:00AM EST

A few months ago I heard leading Canadian investor Eric Sprott speak, and he said a very basic thing that struck a chord. He said that you should not be afraid to connect the dots. The dots are usually in front of you, but people don’t often look beyond the single dot.

Today I am going to show six dots that we can all see. When we connect them, the conclusion is that the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) has a realistic chance of putting the Canadian taxpayer at risk – unless meaningful changes are made.

The key piece of background is that right now, a young couple can put down $20,000 to buy a $400,000 house, or five per cent of the purchase price. Their mortgage will be insured by CMHC (the Canadian government, also known as you and I) in exchange for a fee paid by the young couple.

If that $400,000 house drops in value by 20 per cent, for example, which has happened before in Canada, it will be worth $320,000. But the couple will owe $380,000. Then the odds of them walking away from their house or defaulting on their mortgage become meaningful. Given that this young couple might be in the same position as 50,000 other young couples (about 3 per cent of the Canadian population) at roughly the same time, the odds of a surge in mortgage defaults is very real in Canada.

Here are the dots or facts that we can all see:

Dot #1: “The greatest risk to the domestic economy is household debt,” Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said in an interview with the CBC last week, again sounding the alarm bell on excess borrowing.

Dot #2: The ratio of credit market debt to personal disposable income rose to a record high of 150.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2011, Statistics Canada said last week, the third-straight quarter the figure has gone up.

Dot #3: Last week, Bank of Montreal offered a five-year mortgage rate of 2.99 per cent. The lowest rate offered in history. Yes, this rate is available to those interested in putting down 5 per cent.

Dot #4: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two U.S. organizations started in 1968 as a government sponsored enterprise (although they became privately owned and operated by shareholders) – have a mandate to help Americans to become homeowners by increasing liquidity for housing lending, and where appropriate, taking on risk. These two organizations were bailed out by the U.S. government in 2008 after the housing market deflated and it is estimated that their bailout will eventually cost taxpayers as much as $124-billion (U.S.) through 2014. When the housing bubble burst in the U.S., the value of many houses fell by 50 per cent.

Dot #5: In November, the Economist magazine said that Canada is among nine countries in the world where house prices are overvalued by 25 per cent or more. It went on to say that Canada is one of only three countries where “housing looks more overvalued than it was in America at the peak of its bubble.”

Dot #6: CMHC is Canada’s national housing agency. Established as a government-owned corporation in 1946 to address Canada’s post-war housing shortage, the agency has grown into a major national institution. CMHC backed loans of $541-billion (Canadian) as of Sept. 30, 2011. At that time, the total equity of CMHC was $11.5-billion. This is 2.1 per cent in equity against its overall loan exposure. To put the $541-billion in perspective: If we go back to those imaginary 50,000 couples that bought a $400,000 house and put down $20,000, that represents $19-billion of mortgages.

Back in 2007, Fannie Mae backed up $2.7-trillion (U.S.) of mortgage-backed securities with $40-billion of capital, or 1.5-per-cent equity against its overall exposure. At that time Fannie Mae stock was trading at $50 a share. Today it is 19 cents.

Just because these dots or facts are out there doesn’t mean that housing prices in Canada will fall 25 per cent or that CMHC will face any major financial problems in the years ahead. However, by connecting the dots, we can see a very plausible scenario that already unfolded with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that cost U.S. taxpayers an estimated $124-billion. If we had a similar scenario – and CMHC is now roughly one-tenth the size of the combined Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – it is plausible that in a major real estate downturn, Canadian taxpayers would be on the hook for several billion dollars.

The biggest risk is likely with mortgage holders who only put 5 per cent to 10 per cent of equity down when buying a property. The reason I say this is that if house prices drop by over 10 per cent, everyone in this group will have negative equity in their homes. According to CMHC, 9 per cent of their loan book (or $49-billion) is connected to mortgages with under 10-per-cent equity based on current home prices. Remember all of CMHCs equity value is $11.5-billion (Canadian). Another 18 per cent of their loans are connected to mortgages with between 10-per-cent and 20-per-cent equity based on current home prices. This is another $108-billion of loans.

What happens if Canadian houses hit their ‘proper’ value, according to the Economist magazine, and decline by 25 per cent of their value? Every one of the $157-billion of mortgages noted above will be guaranteed by the Canadian taxpayer, and every one of those mortgages will be on homes with negative equity value.

When we connect the dots and look at the real risk, the time has come for the federal government to do the prudent thing and raise the minimum equity payment from 5 per cent to 10 per cent, and at least minimize the hit from the riskiest segment of mortgages insured by CMHC.

We can’t say we didn’t know, when the dots were right in front of us.

Over the weekend I watched an interesting CBC news report on the upcoming RRSP season. We are being told that we have to be more conservative when calculating our investment returns. Warren MacKenzie, of Weigh House Investor Services, said; “It would be unwise to assume an eight per cent average (return) over the next 15 to 20 years. I think we’re in for some tough times”. So where should our projections be at? According to PWL Capital’s Justin Bender: “Financial planners using more than a 4 per cent to 5 per cent rate of return for their projections (after fees) may be overstating the return that their clients can reasonable expect.”

I was taught to start saving for your retirement from your first pay cheque. I am hoping to hear how YOU are saving for your retirement. Let’s try and get some ideas flowing. I will share these ideas with everybody (names will be kept confidential). I guess you won’t be surprised to hear that I think purchasing a rental property is a good way to plan for my retirement income. I was thrown into this by accident. After renting an office in a plaza that held a major bank, the bank had my lease terminated as they believed I was effecting their mortgage sales. It’s a long story … I ended up purchasing a unit where I operate my office and also lease an apartment above. After the fact, I realized that the bank did me a huge favour!

I believe now is the time we all should be extremely aware of our own retirement planning particularly when we hear Prime Minister Harper say: “We’ve already taken steps to limit the growth of our health-care spending. … We must do the same for our retirement-income system.”

Let’s hear some thoughts

October 17-23 is Canada’s third annual Financial Planning Week and as part of its campaign to get more Canadians engaged in their financial wellbeing, Financial Planning Standards Council (FPSC®) hit the streets to hear what Canadians are saying about money.

“Every day is financial planning day at Financial Planning Standards Council and for the 18,000+ Certified Financial Planner® professionals in Canada. But, while many Canadians may have great intentions, they fall into the procrastination trap,” says Tamara Smith, V.P. Marketing & Consumer Affairs, FPSC. “We are putting a call out to every Canadian: this Financial Planning Week, it’s time to take action — even if in small steps — to do more towards your financial wellbeing.”

10 THINGS YOU CAN DO TO CELEBRATE FINANCIAL PLANNING WEEK: THINK, TALK, ACT ON IT!
Even small steps can build momentum and make a difference.

THINK!

1. Reflect on your life goals (Own a home? Travel the world? Or simply get by?). Think in terms of shorter and longer-term goals. As well, consider your needs and wants. Financial planning supports your life and it involves much more than just planning for tomorrow. It’s about the continuum of your life, which includes today!

TALK!

2. Talk to your life partner. Money often comes last on the list of relationship conversations but it should be a priority and is an essential part of family life planning. Plan now to prevent money from becoming a stressor on your relationship!

3. Talk to your kids. It’s never too early to teach your kids the value of money and the importance of good financial habits.

4. Talk to a financial planning professional who can help you make sense of it all. CFP® professionals are uniquely trained to help you translate your life goals into meaningful financial strategies and in seeing how all these strategies are connected. Before engaging anyone, learn what to look for and what to ask a prospective planner. See 10 Questions to Ask for starters.

ACT!

5. Learn something new. You can start by going to a Financial Planning Week event.

6. Track your spending so you know where that darn money is going. You’d be surprised of how much you can squeeze out in savings when you are accountable for every dollar spent.

7. Create a monthly budget.

8. Pay yourself first and start a savings and/or investment program. Even small amounts add up if you save regularly.

9. Pay off debt — especially credit card debt that can result in high interest fees for late payments. Keep your credit rating healthy and don’t forget to pay those bills on time!

10. Get help creating a financial plan that looks at the whole picture. CFP professionals say it’s never too early to start, nor do you have to be wealthy to have a plan. Planning is for everyone!

11. BONUS TIP: Brainstorm a few of your own ideas of what you can do to celebrate Financial Planning Week and make them meaningful for you. Remember – it’s about your life.

NOTES TO EDITORS:

•FPSC executives are available for media interviews; also, CFP professionals from various regions across Canada are available to discuss financial planning topics.
•Looking for statistics on Canadians’ emotional and financial wellbeing? Read the highlights on FPSC’s Value of Financial Planning Study.

About Financial Planning Week

Now in its third year, Financial Planning Standards Council (FPSC) and the Institut québécois de planification financière (IQPF) have jointly declared October 17-23, 2011 as Canada’s Financial Planning Week. During the Week, each organization will be spearheading industry events and public outreach activities in their respective markets. Financial Planning Week is part of an ongoing effort by both organizations to make financial planning more a part of Canadians’ lives. Stay up-to-date at www.financialplanningweek.ca / Twitter @FPWeek, and join us on the LinkedIn and Facebook page for Financial Planning Week.

It is dying a slow death!   A couple of weeks ago I was able to get a client prime less 0.85%, today that is not the case!  Tonight one of the last lenders is moving up to prime less 0.15%, which is considered a good variable rate when most of the lenders are at prime.  The reason for this change, we are told, is due to the economy which has shrunk profit margins.

The fixed rate option is looking more and more attractive as opposed to taking a new variable rate mortgage.  The 5 year rate is at an historic low….3.39 for 5 year fixed or the very attractive 4 year fixed rate of 2.99%.  The difference in payment for a variable rate and a 5 year fixed rate is $27.87 per month, based on $100,000 amortized over 25 years or $7.15 for the 4 year rate.

I think the money would be well spent having the rate guarantee for the next 4 to 5 years!

However if you are in one of those converted variable rate mortgage of prime minus 0.50% or more, what should you do?
This is the word on the street!

• The Bank of Canada has indicated that it is not looking at raising the overnight rate anytime soon or at least will hold off until such time as it sees the economy improving.

• The U.S. has no plans to increase rates for the next two years making it more difficult for Canada to raise rates unless the Canadian economy is growing in spite of the sluggish U.S. economy.

• Canada is becoming attractive for investors’ thus larger demand for Canadian bonds.  This demand is keeping the bond yields down thus lower fixed rates on mortgages.

This week is Financial Planning Week, another passion that I have is teaching people about budgeting, I hope you find the article interesting!

Fortunately for home buyers that is NOT true. Since the Canadian Governmentmost recentlychanged the mortgage rules in March of this year, there have not been any subsequent changes.

To recap, the changes that came into effect this year were:

1.The maximum amortization for high ratio mortgages (less than a 20% down payment) was changed to 30 years from 35.

2.The maximum amount you can refinance now is 85% of your home value. This was a decrease from 90% before.

3.CMHC decided to no longer insure Home Equity Lines of Credit or HELOC’s

These were the only changes that came into effect this year.

Interest Rates

Fixed interest rates saw a spike across the board in the past 2 weeks as a result of bond yields increasing steadily in the short term.

The major banks increased their 5 year fixed rates slightly over the past week and most smaller lenders followed suit with small tweaks to their rates.Interestingly RBC this week quietly decreased their fixed rates again. We can expect fixed  rates to remain low for the short term barring any unforeseen improvement in the global economic outlook.

Variable rates remain strong with Prime at 3.00% and discounts from Prime that give you an interest rate of 2.25%.Predictions for the next increase in the Prime Rate range from October to early into next year. This makes the case for variable rates with higher payments compelling at least for the time being.

This is very expensive financing and should only be sort as a last resort.  As a mortgage brokerage we do have access to private funds so if you are looking for a private mortgage please contact us for a free confidential consultation.    Tel: 1.866.824.8057 or  www.designermortgages.ca for contact information.

What Are Your Options? Everyone’s financial situation is unique. With that in mind, here are five different options for making your homeownership dreams a reality.

1.      Get a Co-signer

If your income isn’t high enough to qualify for the loan you need and if you can find a co-signer with enough disposable income, part of that person’s income can be considered toward your loan amount regardless of whether the person will actually be living with you or helping you pay the bill. In some cases, a co-signer may also be able to compensate for your less-than-perfect credit. Overall, the co-signer is guaranteeing the lender that your mortgage payments will be paid. If you decide to go this route, just make sure that both of you understand the financial and legal obligations the cosigner takes on when he or she signs the loan documents.

2.      Wait

Sometimes conditions in the economy, the housing market or lending business make lenders less generous with loans. If you’re in a climate where everyone is panicking, then it may be best to wait things out. When conditions improve, lenders may become more accommodating.  In the meantime, you can work on improving your credit score, reducing your debt and increasing your savings. While you’re waiting, home prices or interest rates could drop. Either of these changes could also improve your mortgage eligibility.

3.      Set your Sights on a Less-Expensive Property

If you can’t qualify for the amount of mortgage you want and you aren’t willing to wait, switching to a condo or townhouse instead of a house, accepting fewer bedrooms or bathrooms, or moving to a less attractive or more distant neighbourhood may give you more options. As a more drastic option, you could even move to a different part of the country where the cost of home ownership is lower. When your financial situation improves down the road, you might be able to trade up to the property, neighborhood or city where you hope to end up.

4.      Ask the Lender for an Exception

Believe it or not, it is possible to ask the lender to send your file to someone else within the company for a second opinion on a rejected loan application. In asking for an exception, you’ll need to have a very good reason, and you’ll need to write a carefully worded letter defending your case. Your letter should avoid excuses and sob stories and focus only on the facts. Explain how the incident that is preventing your loan from being approved, such as a charged-off account, was a one-time event that will never occur again. This one-time event should have been caused by a catastrophe such as a large and unexpected medical expense, natural disaster, divorce or death in the family. The blemish on your record will actually need to have been a one-time event, and you’ll need to be able to back your story up with an otherwise flawless credit history.

5.      Team Up With Someone Else

Two incomes are better than one, so if you can’t qualify on your own, perhaps you have a family member or friend that you trust enough and like enough to make a major purchase with and live with. It won’t be enough to just put them on the loan, of course – they’ll need to actually help with the mortgage payments to make it work, and chances are they won’t want to pay half the mortgage unless they’re living in the new home with you.

Conclusion
To go from rejected to preapproved, it’s important to know what lenders are looking for in an applicant. If you’ve been turned down for a mortgage, make sure to ask your mortgage professional plenty of questions about things you could do in your specific situation to make yourself a more attractive loan candidate. With time, patience, hard work and a little luck, you should be able to turn the situation around and become a residential property owner.

                                       (Source: Investopedia)

The popular variable-rate product tied to prime that helped people buy a lot more house with more debt is going up. The prime rate at the major banks, which tracks the Bank of Canada’s rate, is now at 2.75%.

At 2.05%, a variable-rate product today may look as attractive as ever, but the five-year fixed-rate closed mortgage is falling fast. It can now be had for under 4%.

Bank of Montreal senior economist Sal Guatieri does agree that variable-rate products have worked out better than fixed-rate mortgages throughout history, but says the tide may be turning.

Bank of Montreal is forecasting another 25 basis point move in September and says rates will climb another 1.5 percentage points by the end of 2011. If Mr. Guatieri and others are right, by 2012, the variable-rate products out today would clock in at just above 3.75%, if the discounting remains the same.

“If you are still in that variable-rate product then, you’d have to sweat out the next three years because there would still be possibly more increases,” says Mr. Guatieri, who adds his bank sees the overnight rate eventually going to 4% in the following three years. Based on the present gap between the Bank of Canada and prime, that would place the variable-rate product you get today at 6% by around 2015.

Fears of such a scenario are driving people into fixed-rate products again. That, plus new mortgage rules that make it easier to qualify for a mortgage if you go for a fixed-rate product with a term of five years or longer.

For updated rates and more information on the right mortgage for you please visit www.designermortgages.ca/rates.htm or call 1-866-824-8057